Director, National Security Coordination Centre
National Security Coordination Secretariat
Prime Minister’s Office
From Weak Signals to Emerging Threat Scenarios: Looking where others are not.
The September 11 attacks, the outbreak of SARS, the rise of ISIS and Brexit are but a few events that have caught us by surprise. These events emphasise the need to be vigilant, and to continuously ‘scan’ the environment for emerging trends – or threats. “Horizon Scanning and Risk Assessment” is hence the behaviour of looking for weak signals and envisaging them as scenarios with serious consequences. Such a system is founded on helping organisations and governments to look beyond the obvious and the common, to break away from biases and mindsets that fixate perspectives and world-views. In other words, this requires one to look where others are not.
In this presentation, the speaker will share his views and experience on horizon scanning, risk assessment and scenario generation and how data has been used to help the Singapore government stay vigilant. He will share about the RAHS System and its text mining and data analytics applications, which help analysts make sense of open source data. He will discuss RPO’s experience in building RAHS and share his vision for the system going forward.
Lock Pin is Director of the National Security Coordination Centre (NSCC) and oversees the Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning (RAHS) Programme Office (RPO), Prime Minister’s Office (PMO). NSCC is a central agency for national security policy coordination. Lock Pin’s role there is to lead and facilitate programmes that support our nation’s security, resilience, and preparedness against strategic threats. NSCC works closely with ministries and agencies to develop capabilities across national security domains such as maritime security, critical infrastructure protection, and CBRE (chemical, biological, radiological, and explosive), to name a few. Lock Pin leads the RAHS programme in its efforts to identify new emerging national security issues and threats to enhance shared awareness and strategic anticipation. He leads in the development of the RAHS (version 3.0) System, which is built to support the foresight processes.
Before joining NSCS, Lock Pin served in the Republic of Singapore Navy for 25 years. He held appointments at the Future Systems Directorate, MINDEF as Office Director, and as Head CPoF (Command Post of the Future). He served as Division Manager with the Defence Science and Technology Agency (DSTA), leading a team in Command and Control Software Systems developments. His work in DSTA had won the Singapore Defence Technology Prize.